successful people’s advice

Survivorship bias, or survival bias, is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that “survived” some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. The survivors may be actual people, as in a medical study, or could be companies or research subjects or applicants for a job, or anything that must make it past some selection process to be considered further.

Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just coincidence. For example, if three of the five students with the best college grades went to the same high school, that can lead one to believe that the high school must offer an excellent education. This could be true, but the question cannot be answered without looking at the grades of all the other students from that high school, not just the ones who “survived” the top-five selection process.

Survivorship bias is a type of selection bias.

In Search of Excellence is an international bestselling book written by Tom Peters and Robert H. Waterman, Jr..

First published in 1982, it is one of the biggest selling business books ever, selling 3 million copies in its first four years, and being the most widely held monograph in the United States from 1989 to 2006 (WorldCat data).

The book purports to explore the art and science of management used by several 1980s companies.

Organizational Learning

The Challenge of Organizational Learning

Disseminating insights and know-how across any organization is critical to improving performance, but nonprofits struggle to implement organizational learning and make it a priority. A recent study found three common barriers to knowledge sharing across nonprofits and their networks, as well as ways and means to overcome them.

Strategic Planning

WHAT IS VMOSA?

One way to make that journey is through strategic planning, the process by which a group defines its own “VMOSA;” that is, its Vision, Mission, Objectives, Strategies, and Action Plans. VMOSA is a practical planning process that can be used by any community organization or initiative. This comprehensive planning tool can help your organization by providing a blueprint for moving from dreams to actions to positive outcomes for your community.

7 Step Problem Solving

Prof. Shoji Shiba is an international expert in Total Quality Management (TQM) and Breakthrough Management.[1] Globally he is best known for developing the “Five Step Discovery Process” for Breakthrough Management. In the recent years he has been guiding the transformation of the Indian manufacturing industry.

A Deming Prize winner[2] in an individual capacity for propagating TQM amongst corporates and governments, Prof. Shiba has authored books like ‘A New American TQM’ (co-authored by David Walden and Alan Graham), ‘Integrated Management Systems’ (co-authored by Thomas H Lee and Robert Chapman Wood), ‘Four Practical Revolutions in Management’ (with David Walden) in English and ‘Breakthrough Management’ (Japanese 2003; English 2006).


To handle a complex problem say for example a huge number of calls in a call center, you need the following 7 steps (defined by Dr. Shoti Shiba) to perfectly solve it:

  1. Definition: the first thing is to ask what is the problem really, without the answer of this question you cannot go any further; taking our example, you need to know what the problem really is? Is it the number of calls? Is it how long the call is taken? Or it is about something in the content of the call. Let’s decide it is the number of calls.
  2. Data Collection: next step is to answer the question “WHAT?” Get detailed data about the problem; if we are talking about the number of calls so let’s draw a graph about the number of calls over time.
  3. Cause Analysis: next step is to answer the question of “WHY?”; many techniques can help you find the cause of the problem such as Ishikawa or Pareto; or may be simple analysis, any of them will use the data collected above; in our example you found that the increase of calls synchronized with the shipment of new product, which the most of the new callas are about.
  4. Solution Planning & Implementation: “A lot of work in a simple line of writing”; after previous 3 steps you are ready correctly solve your problem by planning and implementing the solution; it worth the effort because you know you are doing the right thing; in our example you may chip to the customer a check list about the things/checks they need to go through before calling.
  5. Evaluation of Effects: Don’t stop now; you need this step as much as you need the previous 4; the question here is “DID IT WORKED?”; after shipping the check list you need to monitor and collect some data to check if the calls goes normal again.
  6. Standardization: once we found the right solution, let’s see how widely we can use it in the organization.
  7. Evaluation of The Process: after we widely spread the solution all over the organization we still not done; we need to know about the steps we have been through to solve the problem are they good to do every time we solve a problem, what are they pros and cons; so next time we do it more efficiently.

Digital Books Publishing

ePub Conversion

EPUB Validator (beta)

 

Aaron Shepard’s
Sales Rank Express
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Two books about selling on Amazon that everybody should take a look at. The first is Steve Weber’s “The Home Based Bookstore”, which describes in detail the art of selling through Amazon Marketplace. The second is Aaron Shepard’s “Aiming at Amazon” a publishing business plan that focuses on Amazon sales. Finally, if you’re interested in the publishing system I use to make my living, and for which I’ve walked away from many trade contract offers, I summed it all up in “Print-on-Demand Book Publishing”, not to be confused with subsidy publishing.

Morris Rosenthal

Aaron Shepard’s Publishing Page

https://www.smashwords.com/

https://kdp.amazon.com/community/forum.jspa?forumID=13

http://www.jutoh.com/explore.htm

http://www.writerscafe.co.uk/

http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/xml/tutorials/x-epubtut/index.html

Double-triangular Distribution

Double-triangular Distribution is the combination of two triangles, each with an area of 0.5. The mode is also the median.

The mean is:

The variance is:

Note: the variance is the same as for the triangular distribution.

The probability density is:

And the cumulative distribution function:

 

For Monte Carlo simulation random values from the DT can be generated using random numbers between 0 and 1 (here denoted as “p”) and the following formulas:

The double-triangular is quite unnatural. It is highly unlikely to be a proper representation of uncertainty. Moreover, estimating the median is, in my view, more difficult than the estimating the most likely value (mode).

three-point estimation

The three-point estimation technique is used in management and information systems applications for the construction of an approximate probability distribution representing the outcome of future events, based on very limited information. While the distribution used for the approximation might be a normal distribution, this is not always so and, for example a triangular distribution might be used, depending on the application.,[1]

In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses:

  • a = the best-case estimate
  • m = the most likely estimate
  • b = the worst-case estimate.

These are then combined to yield either a full probability distribution, for later combination with distributions obtained similarly for other variables, or summary descriptors of the distribution, such as the mean, standard deviation or percentage points of the distribution. The accuracy attributed to the results derived can be no better than the accuracy inherent in the 3 initial points, and there are clear dangers in using an assumed form for an underlying distribution that itself has little basis.

Based on the assumption (possibly unwarranted) that a doubletriangular distribution governs the data, several estimates are possible. These values are used to calculate an E value for the estimate and a standard deviation (SD) as L-estimators, where:

E = (a + 4m + b) / 6
SD = (b − a) / 6

E is a weighted average which takes into account both the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates provided. SD measures the variability or uncertainty in the estimate. In Project Evaluation and Review Techniques (PERT) the three values are used to fit a Beta distribution for Monte Carlo simulations.

The triangular distribution is also commonly used. It differs from the double-triangular by its simple triangular shape and the mode does not have to coincide with the median. The mean (expectation) is then:

E = (a + m + b) / 3.

In some applications,[1] the triangular distribution is used directly as an estimated probability distribution, rather than for the derivation of estimated statistics.

pay it forward

The expression “pay it forward” is used to describe the concept of asking the beneficiary of a good deed to repay it to others instead of to the original benefactor. The concept is old, but the phrase may have been coined by Lily Hardy Hammond in her 1916 book In the Garden of Delight.[1]

Pay it forward” is implemented in contract law of loans in the concept of third party beneficiaries. Specifically, the creditor offers the debtor the option of “paying” the debt forward by lending it to athird person instead of paying it back to the original creditor. Debt and payments can be monetary or by good deeds. A related type of transaction, which starts with a gift instead of a loan, isalternative giving.